Bad Loss is a sign of a Bad Team

Wow!!! That was some bad football. The Buffalo Bills have been decimated by injuries on defense, had a rookie making his 1st start at QB, and the Jets some how find a way to lose!!!
Enough with all the damn excuses - this team sucks!
Bad QB, bad run-defense, and no pass rush!
Pennington is not the answer at QB, Vilma is not the answer at LB, and Ferguson is not the answer at LT.
This season is likely done and the Jets need to start finding some answers.
Does Mangini have the balls to make the tough decisions? - Probably not until the Jets lose 5 games (which could be in 2 weeks).

Jets are a Good Bet this Week at Buffalo

The Jets are favored by -3.5 at Buffalo this week.

Don't bet the Jets laying the points! The probability of a Jets win is very high, but the risk of a FG win makes the bet risky!

Instead try this:

Bet the Jets to Win as a Parlay with another "near lock" (maybe Dallas, San Diego, or New England)

and/or

Bet the Jets as part of a Teaser that nullifies the -3.5

Good luck. And...
J - E - T -S Jets Jets Jets

Week 4 - Jets vs Buffalo

The 2007 Buffalo Bills are cursed by injuries. In addition to the prior injuries from weeks 1 & 2, Buffalo is likely to miss the following in week 4 against the Jets

• QB JP Losman – knee
• LB Posluszny – arm
• OL Whittle – hamstring

Expect rookie QB T. Edwards to start

Expect the Bills to try and pound the ball against a weak Jet’s run-defense

With all the injuries to the Buffalo defense the Jets should be able to score enough points to win.

That was UGLY

A win is a win, but this game showed the Jets have some major problems on both sides of the ball. The defense cannot stop the run, even when the opposing team's offensive line stinks. And the offense doesn't scare anybody. Miami was playing tight coverage and trying to jump routes all day -- and this is a bad Miami D, this was not the Ravens D. The Jets coaches need to make the move and start developing the kid.

AFC Playoff Race

AFC Teams

1. New England 3-0

2. Indy 3-0

3. Pittsburgh 3-0

4. Baltimore 2-1

5. Houston 2-1

6. Jacksonville 2-1

7. Denver 2-1

8. Tennessee ???

Key Games on the Horizon

· Week 4 - Denver at Indy

· Week 7 – Tennessee ??? at Houston

· Week 7 – Pittsburgh at Denver

· Week 7 – Indy at Jacksonville

· Week 9 – New England at Indy

· Week 9 – Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Vegas has Mispriced this game

Vegas has the Jets as -3 in the Meadowlands against a bad Miami team. This implies the teams are even, with the Jets getting the standard 3 point home field edge. This is nonsense. The Jets have looked bad the last 2 weeks against the Pats and the Ravens, but Miami has looked bad against much lesser opponents. No matter who starts at QB, look for the Jets to win big on Sunday.

Miami Game will say a lot about this Team

This Sunday's game is going to give us a lot of information about the future of 2007 NY Jets. The Jets have looked bad playing against 2 very good teams, but Miami is bad and it will be interesting to see how the Jets match-up.

Miami's offensive line is one of the worst in the league and a "good" defense should be able disrupt and dominate the Miami offense. If the Jets D fails to dominate it is a very bad indicator of future performance. Likewise, on offense the Jets need to dominate the point of attack and establish a consistent rushing attack. DE J. Taylor remains dangerous, but the remaining defensive players for Miami are average at best. This includes the once dominant MLB Z. Thomas who is now starting to show his age. Failure to establish a running game this week will be a bad sign for the rest of the season!

2-0 vs 0-2

Since 1990 only 18 teams have started 0-2 and made the playoffs (~1 per year) – this group includes the ‘93 Cowboys and 2001 Patriots who both went on to win the Super Bowl after an 0-2 start

0-2 Teams – AFC

1. Buffalo – No Divisional Losses Yet
2. Miami – No Divisional Losses Yet
3. KC – No Divisional Losses Yet
4. Oakland
5. NY Jets

0-2 Teams – NFC

1. New Orleans
2. St Louis
3. Philly
4. NY Giants
5. Atlanta

Since the playoffs were expanded in 1990 to include 12 teams, 65.7% of clubs starting 2-0 made the playoffs.

2-0 Teams – AFC

1. New England
2. Indy
3. Pittsburgh
4. Denver
5. Houston – No Divisional Wins Yet

2-0 Teams – NFC (16 teams)

1. SF 49ers – 2-0 in the Division
2. Dallas
3. Washington
4. Detroit
5. Green Bay – No Divisional Wins Yet

Don't Panic - Weeks 3, 4, and 5 should be Easier!

This team is not ready to take on the elite and it showed in weeks 1 and 2. Most analysts had the Jets opening 0-2, and now that forecast has come true. The good news is that the schedule gets a lot easier over the next 3 games (Miami, at Buffalo, and at NY Giants).

1. Miami's offensive line is even worse than the Jets, while their defense looks vulnerable to runs between the tackles.
2. Buffalo's defense has been decimated with injuries and off-season losses.
3. The NY Giants' pass defense has looked pathetic, while the running game has not looked good.

If the offensive line can establish a running game the offense should start to move the ball, and the defense should be good enough to slow the very average offenses over the next 3 weeks.

Quick Thoughts After Week 2 Loss to Ravens

Offensive Line
The offensive line play is an embarassing mess - the pass protection and run blocking has been horrendous from preseason all the way thru today's game in Baltimore. If they continue to play this way the Jets will be lucky to win 6 games. But fortunately the line play should improve as the level of competition drops significantly after today's loss to Ravens.

QB
The Jets have seen the future. Pennington gives the team the best shot to win near-term, but the development of Clemens needs to become a priority. He showed great poise and toughness against a dominant Ravens defense that was constantly pressuring him. In addition, it was clear that his arm strength is far superior to Pennington's and strong enough to be an NFL starting QB. In the 4th quarter he made some excellent throws even when they went incomplete. The dropped pass he threw to McCareins at the 5 yard line was an excellent example of how the Jets offense could open up if they replace the weak-armed Pennington.

Run-Defense
The run-defense was much better today, but we suspect that the Ravens played a conservative style as their defense was dominant and starting QB S. McNair was out.

Pass Rush
This is becoming a real problem. Many fans wanted to believe that the poor pass rush in week 1 was somehow related to the Pats stealing defensive signals, but today's performance dispels that myth. With the exception of DE S. Ellis's one play on an all out blitz late in the 4th quarter the Jets were unable to get any pressure on Boller.

AFC East Teams - LVSC Rankings

The Las Vegas Sports Consultants NFL rankings are the most consistently reliable rankings in the game. Here we will review our perspective on the rankings of the AFC East Teams.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) NFL Rankings
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/story.cfm/story/613266

Rank	Team	Rating	Previous Week
1	New England	144.8	1
2	SAN DIEGO	143.9	3
3	INDIANAPOLIS	143.8	2
4	CHICAGO	142.5	4
5	DALLAS	141.0	6
6	PITTSBURGH	140.8	10
7	CINCINNATI	140.6	8
8	SEATTLE	140.5	9
9	BALTIMORE	140.4	5
10	DENVER	139.8	11
11	PHILADELPHIA	139.5	12
12	NEW ORLEANS	139.4	7
13	CAROLINA	139.3	13
14	JACKSONVILLE	139.2	14
15	TENNESSEE	137.0	17
16	WASHINGTON	136.6	20
17	SAN FRANCISCO	136.3	18
18	SAINT LOUIS	136.1	16
19	GREEN BAY	135.8	22
20	DETROIT	135.7	24
21	MIAMI	135.4	21
22	NEW YORK GIANTS	135.3	19
23	ARIZONA	135.2	25
24	KANSAS CITY	134.9	23
25	MINNESOTA	134.8	26
26	TAMPA BAY	134.7	28
27	BUFFALO	134.6	27
28	HOUSTON	134.5	29
29	OAKLAND	134.2	31
30	NEW YORK JETS	133.9	15
31	ATLANTA	132.8	30
32	CLEVELAND	132.5	32

The New England Patriots stay ranked #1 after a dominant victory over the NY Jets. We agree with the ranking.

The Miami Dolphins are ranked #21 -- this is a mistake. This team has many problems -- a weak offensive line, an old QB, an aging defense, and a terrible head coach! This team will be lucky to win 6 games this year. We have a great deal of respect for the guys at LVSC, but ranking the Dolphins this high is crazy. We'd have them ranked around #27/28.

The Buffalo Bills are ranked #27. Even with the injuries to the defense this team is clearly better than Miami, KC, Tampa, SF, Arizona, and Washington. Dick Jauron is an excellent head coach and his teams always play sound, fundamental football. The killer early schedule and the losses on the defensive side of the ball could send this team to an 0-5 opening, but this does not change the fact that they should still beat many of the weaker teams in the NFL. We'd have them ranked around #20.

The NY Jets are ranked #30. After the terrible performance against the Pats we expected the Jets to drop, but this is ridiculous. The team struggled against one of the best teams in the NFL - a lot of average teams will look really bad against them (the Jets were just the 1st). The Jets team has problems at QB, LT, and on run-defense, but the coaching staff is excellent. The loss of the starting QB Pennington to an ankle injury is a negative, but even with back-up Clemens this team is clearly better than Miami and likely on par with Buffalo. We'd have them ranked around # 19.

Division Rival, Buffalo likely to struggle in next 4 games

Most of the media coverage has focused on the tragic cervical spine injury incurred by Buffalo's back-up TE K. Everett. Luckily the recent news has been positive and suggests the he will regain some function in both his upper and lower limbs. But from a football perspective the recent season-ending injuries to the starting safety (S K. Simpson) and starting CB (J. Webster) are far more important. In the context of a defensive unit that lost key talent during the off-season these additional loses will create opportunities for the opposing offenses.

The next 4 games for the Bills are against talented teams and we expect the Bills defense to struggle. An 0-5 start is becoming a real possibility and would effectively eliminate the team from division contention.

Sun 9/16	at Pittsburgh	1:00 pm
Sun 9/23	at New England	1:00 pm
Sun 9/30	NY Jets	1:00 pm
Mon 10/8	Dallas	8:30 pm

Week 2 - NY Jets at Baltimore

We expect QB K. Clemens to play this week against the Ravens. He does NOT have a strong arm, but his arm is clearly stronger than Pennington’s. His inexperience will be a major weakness, but if he can threaten the Ravens D by connecting on a few out patterns and downfield passes it may open up the middle of the field for the running plays, short-passes, and draw plays.

We expect the left-side of the offensive line to continue to struggle this week against a very physical and aggressive defense. Despite head coach Mangini's satisfaction with Ferguson's off-season and training camp performance the LT has looked very bad on multiple plays thru the preseason and week 1. Perhaps the absence of the savy veteran Kendall is making Ferguson hesitate or misread a situation. Whatever the reason I am sure the Ravens will find a way to attack the left-side and disrupt the flow of the offense. The Jets will likely need to counter by keeping a TE or RB in on pass protection.

Expect the Jets defense to play aggressive run-defense against the Ravens and force QB K. Boller to beat them thru the air. One on one coverage on the WRs could lead to some big plays for the Ravens if the pass rush doesn't improve from week 1.

Expect the Jets to be more conservative against the Ravens defense as they will have an inexperienced QB under center and are facing one of the best defensive coordinators in the game (Rex Ryan). Specifically, expect the Jets to use multiple screen plays and 3^rd down draws ala the Paul Hackett era.

Inactive List for Week 2

Inactive List:

1. G Jacob Bender
2. CB Andre Dyson
3. S Eric Smith
4. FB Darian Barnes
5. DE Mike DeVito
6. TE Jason Pociask
7. WR Chansi Stuckey

NY Jets sign RG Brandon Moore to extension

Great move. The guy is only 27 years old and is a solid talent with experience. This is not analogous to Kendall who is 34 - so ignore those that try to make the connection!

We maintain that the Jets early offensive line play in 2007 will struggle with the absence of Kendall and the poor play of the LT. But over a 2 year horizon the development of younger talent (like Bender or Clarke) to replace will prove to be the smart move -- the team is trading this year for next year and beyond. We like this move as we do not believe that the weak-armed Pennington can make the Jets a serious competitor for the championship. The development of Clemens (or other QB) will take time and needs to be in sync with the development of a strong offensive line.

Clemens likely to start against Ravens

This is just a wild guess, but we suspect that even under a best case scenario that Pennington will be severely limited in his reps this week. A mobile, Clemens with a full week of practice seems like a good bet to start against the Ravens. But whoever is behind center will likely be handing the ball off an inordinate number of times as the Jets cannot trust the offensive line in pass protection, especially against the Ravens D.

Week 1 - Jets dominated by Pats

Week 1 – Jets at home vs. Pats

This game was a blowout, and it wasn’t even that close. The Patriots totally dominated all phases of this game - offense, defense, and special teams. The Pats offense put up 431 yards and seemed to move at will against a Jets defense that was weak between the tackles and ineffective in the pass rush despite various blitz packages. The Pats defense controlled the line of scrimmage disrupting the rushing attack and consistently pressuring the QB. The Pats special teams opened the 2nd half with a NFL record 108 yard kickoff return, but even more impressively they completely shut down the Jets punt and kickoff returns with exceptional coverage.

There are those in the media that will remind us that this is only 1 game, and they will be right. But this game is also part of a pattern. In 2006 the Jets had one of the weakest schedules in the NFL and finished a deceptive 10-6. Despite making the playoffs team had major weaknesses (see the Jacksonville 41-0 loss). During the offseason changes were made, but positive results were not seen in the preseason as the starters struggled in run-defense, pass rush, and offensive line play. In Sunday's game the same pattern continued -- poor run-defense, no pass rush, and terrible offensive line play. The season is still young and the coaches are excellent, but Jets will need to break this ugly pattern before there can be any real hope for the season.

The Offensive Line

The defense will get a lot of the blame for the loss, but the Jets offensive line play was worse! The unit was unable to open holes for the running game and Pennington was consistently under pressure. LG A. Clarke is an obvious weakness as he is a stop-gap replacement as the rookie J. Bender develops. But a less obvious, and far more concerning weakness is the hole at LT. The #4 overall pick from 2006 looked like a rookie against the Pats D-line (even without R. Seymour). He was unable to get a push on running plays and was regularly beaten in pass protection -- if this guy becomes the Jets version of Robert Gallery the team could struggle for years!

RB T. Jones

He looked good on a few plays, but was limited by the terrible performance of the offensive line.

No Pass Rush

The Jets base defense was not able to get pressure last year and needed to use a a variety of blitzes to hurry the QB. This year looks like more of the same. On Sunday the Pats countered by using max protect packages trusting that the limited array of receivers would get open. They were right, and the Pats moved the ball at will. The biggest stop for the Jets came in the 1st half on an unforced error when Wes Welker dropped an easy 4 yard pass on 3rd and 3.

QB C. Pennington

Let's be clear, Pennington's return from his injury was heroic and showed his warrior spirit, but he did not play well in the 1st half when he was healthy. If the Pats LB did not have stone hands he would have been intercepted on the 1st drive, and later in the 1st half he made some very inaccurate throws. The guy will be a great coach and an excellent role model, but he is NOT an NFL QB. The Jets offense will struggle even more if Pennington's injury requires them to work in 2nd year QB as the starter. But in the long-run the development of a QB other than Pennington will be critical for the Jets to one day compete with the elite teams in the NFL.

The Division
Miami and Buffalo both were beaten late by FGs, so the Jets are not alone at the bottom. Miami looked bad in their loss to Washington, but the Bills looked good in losing to Denver.

Next Game
The Ravens lack the explosive firepower of the Pats offense, which means the game could be close enough for the Jets to squeak out a victory. But if the offensive line problems are not fixed the Ravens may not have to score many points. If the Jets some how pull out a victory next week and the Chargers beat the Pats the opening week will be a distant memory.

Good Cuts

Several roster cuts are a very positive sign for the NY Jets as they indicate an improving talent base:

• DE Kimo von Oelhoffen - aging veteran that didn't have much left last year. He's done, and it is a good sign that the Jets have players that were able to beat him out.
• ILB Anthony Schlegel - he should have been cut last year - what the hell were they thinking when they drafted him in the 3rd round? The selection was horrendous and Jets fans must hope that the front office learns from the mistake. Sometimes character is not enough. Sometimes you need physical talent! (especially if you are selected on the 1st day of the draft!)
  
• OLB Andre Wadsworth - He was asked to learn a new position in a new system. He probably needs more reps to get comfortable, but I'm not sure if he has shown enough to be a practice squad candidate. His age and injury history limit his upside
• CB M. Collins - the team is deep enough that they didn't need him
• DE B. Hamilton - he is 36 and a warrior, but his good days are long gone
• DE M. Haynes - his inability to make the team might be a reflection on him, rather than an indicator of strong depth on the D-line (but we decided to include him on the list anyway)
  

The Story that Jets Fans Don't Want to Read

OK... let's start by saying that we would love to be wrong about our analysis below, but sadly we know we are not. Jets fans be warned, you will not like reading our post below.




The Jets have many questions on the offensive side heading into the season opener. They have had problems at LG, LT, and their newly acquired starting RB may have a chronic injury. But the real problem with the Jets offense is at QB. Chad is a great guy, he is a smart guy, and he will make an excellent coach one day – BUT he does NOT have the talent to be an NFL QB.
Can the Jets win with him? Yes (see 2002).
Can they win the Super Bowl with him? Yes. (If Trent Dilfer can win one, then Chad can win one -- but the Jets do not have the O-line or defense of the 2000 Ravens)

The real point is that the talent around Chad makes him look good, not the other way around. This season, the Jets will need a dominant rushing attack to make his play-action passing game look good (see the Paul Hackett years). If this develops they will be OK. BUT if he is asked to win games with his arm then this team is in big, big trouble. Despite the NY sports media hype about his decision making, he consistently breaks down when pressured (dates back to 2002 Raiders playoff game). When the pressure comes up the middle he can’t step into his throws and floats his passes. And when he rolls out he lacks the arm strength to make good throws as he often does not have time to reset himself. These problems are compounded in cold and windy games when the opposing defenses can play aggressive coverage as Chad’s downfield accuracy becomes absolutely horrendous in these conditions! This means that the Jets will have a better chance of winning late-season (and playoff) games on the road at domes or warm weather locales. These facts will never change, but the excellent coaching staff will continue to explore innovative ways to hide his weaknesses. In the end, Jets fans must hope that Clemens is ready to take-over soon as the Jets will not be able to beat the elite teams until they put a new guy in at QB.