LT - Is Ferguson a bust?

The Jets selected LT D. Ferguson #4 overall in 2006 to be the dominant, LT anchor of the new offensive line for the next decade! His rookie year was decent, but not spectacular, especially when compared to other OL like Mangold (NY Jets) or McNeil (San Diego). In particular he was susceptible to bull-rushes by larger defenders in pass protection and never distinguished himself as a run-blocker at the point of attack. His weight loss during his rookie year brought him down to 290 lbs and the head coach clearly wanted him to put on some size. After an entire offseason of preparation, he was only able to bring his weight up to 305 lbs to start training camp. This is not a significant improvement within the context of NFL linemen, and there is no guarantee he can maintain it throughout the season. Recognizing that this is not the size of dominant LTs, the Jets felt it necessary to bring in a personal mentor (Lomas Brown) to help Ferguson learn to maximize his talents and compete as an "undersized" LT. I suspect when they drafted him the talk was that his frame could handle a lot more muscle. Even if that is still true it doesn't seem like he is able to make the gains. There is no way to spin it, there are some positions that require players to trade some athleticism for size and power, LT is one of those positions. The massive guys that are still athletic enough to execute decent footwork and technique emerge as the stars. The undersized guys always get praised for how they can compete despite being undersized, but these are not the guys that become the dominant O-line anchors. Right now it looks like his peak is likely to be as a good, but never great LT. And the Jets better hope he can develop to that lowered expectation as his performance in the preseason has been horrendous!


Bottom-line: Look for the Jets to run a lot of no-huddle, fast-tempo plays to take advantage of Ferguson's likely cardiovascular edge at his smaller size. But expect the next version of Jets draft blunders to feature the selection of Ferguson instead of QB J. Cutler who looks like an emerging star in Denver.

Rookie LG likely to be Starter

The longer the Jets wait to add a veteran LG, the more likely it becomes that the rookie J. Bender will be the starter. The coaches and QB have both been complementary about his skills, attitude, and approach. However, the kid looked like a very raw rookie against the Giants. Before that game he had less than 1 week of reps with the starting team at LG, so expect him to see significant time in preseason game #4. If he improves with coaching and reps the team may have found their new LG.
Now... the Ferguson kid at LT is a whole other ball game. The guy needs to add a little "roid rage" to his game.

5 Steps to Success

1. Trade LB J. Vilma - the guy will never fit into the 3-4, trade him while he still has value. Then start Harris, Barton, Hobson, and Thomas
2. Start the rookie J. Bender at LG and let Pennington get killed in the 1st 2 games. Then when Bender's play improves move Clemens into the starting role. Chad's got the guts and the brain, but not the arm! And they can't coach-up the arm.
3. Move Brad Smith from QB to WR and let him develop at 1 position! The guy has some special skills and when Clemens is starting the downfield game will open up.
   
4. Sign RB C. Dillon - the injury to Jones could be chronic, and L Washington is too valuable as a R. Bush type to expose him to the every down pounding.
5. Sign DT C. Simon to back-up the D-Line
   

NY Jets vs NY Giants

That was some ugly, ugly football. The Jets were outplayed on both sides of the ball. This is the 2nd week in a row that the Jets starters lined up and were soundly beaten by the opposing team.

OFFENSE

The offensive line looked terrible again, and outside of the opening TD play, the offense was anemic. The Jets have the obvious hole at LG, but may also have a problem at LT. This is the 2nd week in a row that LT D. Ferguson was beaten multiple times. We can dismiss many things in the preseason, but the coaches NEVER want to put their starting QB at risk and yet the pass protection has been horrendous. Don’t be fooled by all the “vanilla offense” talk – the line play has been very, very bad.

The rookie OL J. Bender played LG and looked like a rookie. That is to be expected, and the Jets will need to coach him up fast, or they will need to find a replacement. The other option, A. Clarke again looked like a back-up at best.

When the offensive line play is poor any offense will struggle, but with QBs like Pennington it seems even worse. He needs a solid offensive line and strong running game to operate effectively (Paul Hackett was right). He struggles terribly when the pocket collapses. This pattern seems to date back all the way to the 2002/03 playoff game against the Raiders. His arm strength limitations demand that he execute proper mechanics when delivering the football, and pressure seems to disrupt those mechanics. If they clean up the line play and can establish a running game, Pennington should improve his performance. If not, it will be a very long season.

DEFENSE:

The Giants dominated the ball in the 1st half for 21 minutes! The Jets defense may have been in vanilla mode, but they made a vanilla Giants offense look good on both running and passing plays. If the Giants make 2 FGs (40 and 42) the half-time score would have been 18-6. I suspect the Jets pass defense will be decent when they move to the more complex blitz and coverage schemes, but I remain very concerned about the run-defense. I know Vilma is loved in NY, but replacing him with Harris on rushing downs seems to make sense as Vilma plays more like a 3^rd safety than an ILB.

POSITIVES:

2nd year QB K. Clemens looked comfortable at QB and made some good decisions. I especially liked the hurry-up, goal line QB sneak. He is starting to string some nice performances together. Once they fix the line, I'd love to see the kid play against some real competition.

RB L. Washington is a play maker. The Jets need to find ways to get him the ball in space. The kid has some special talent.

Rookie CB D. Revis seemed to handle his assignments well.

Rookie LB D. Harris is an excellent tackler and seemed to be in good position when he was on the field.

Bottom-line: Mangini will never admit it, but he must be concerned. I haven't seen anything during the preseason that indicates this team is ready to compete with New England or Baltimore. But then again, it is only preseason. The team is still undefeated at 0-0 and fans can always “hope”. Mangini has 2 weeks to clean-up the mess, or opening week against the Pats will be the Massacre at the Meadowlands.

NY Jets - Reasons for Concern

As we enter the 3rd preseason game tonight against the NY Giants, there are several major concerns about the 2007 team. These include:
1) Weak Run-Defense
2) RB T. Jones Injury
3) QB C. Pennington's Weak Arm
4) Offensive line's hole at LG and lack of top OT talent

Let's address each briefly.

Weak Run-Defense
The run-defense was horrendous last year. The team ranked 24th in the league and yet played a very easy schedule. While run-defense is always a collective effort, there are 3 main positions of concern:
1) ILB J. Vilma - undersized and poor run defender in a 3-4
2) DT D. Robertson - not a 1-gap style NT
3) RDE K. Coleman - an upgrade from last year, but a career back-up and unproven as a starter

RB T. Jones Injury
This is huge. There is tremendous uncertainty about the injury, but there are fears it could intermittently flare throughout the season and result in substantial missed playing time. When healthy T. Jones is a solid every down back, but if he is limited by injury or misses time then the Jets will have a major void to fill. Back-up L. Washington is a change of pace back and not well suited to be an every down back.

QB C. Pennington's Weak Arm
This will never change. The Jets need to buy time until K. Clemens is ready to takeover.

Offensive Line
The trade of LG P. Kendall was successful because he did not end up on a division rival. However, the Jets made a clear decision to trade today for tomorrow. Meanwhile the play of both LT D. Ferguson and RT A. Clement is average at best. Ferguson must demonstrate substantial improvement in his 2nd year to justify his salary slot as a #4 overall in 2006. The C N. Mangold is excellent, but he is just one player.

Outlook: Jets vs Division Rival NE Patriots

The Pats are one of the elite teams in the league! QB T. Brady has tremendous weapons in R. Moss, D. Stallworth, W. Welker, and B. Watson. The Jets defense should be strong against the pass this year, but weak against the run. If the Pats line can establish a running game with L. Maroney then these games will NOT be close.

The Jets offense could move the ball if passing conditions are friendly (not cold and windy). But the later game is likely to be cold and windy and the Jets offense led by weak-armed QB C. Pennington is likely to struggle against a talented Pats D.

The Jets special teams are one of the best groups in the league, but this won't be enough.

Bottom-line: The gap between the Pats and Jets is too wide. Expect the Pats to win both games.

Outlook: Jets vs Division Rival Miami

Miami's offensive line is a mess and the aging veteran QB T. Green is likely to struggle. The under-sized Jets defense should match-up well and they should be able to get pressure (and maybe some picks).

Miami's defense is Jason Taylor and a bunch of other guys. If the Jets can overload his side and run right at him the offense should be able to move the ball.

Bottom-line: Miami is rebuilding and the Jets are a better team. These games are always tough, but the Jets are likely to win both.

Jets Trade LG P. Kendall to Washington Redskins

The deal is finally done. Any trade that does not end with Kendall on Miami’s offensive line is a win for the Jets. Given the recent spike in OG free agent contracts, the team should have paid him the extra $1M. Kendall was the best OG on the team, played well last year, and should have at least 1 good year left. But the Jets front office decided it was time to move on. Let’s see if the rookie OL J. Bender can open some running lanes against the Giants D-line in preseason game #3. If he plays well the Jets could be OK, but if A. Clarke is the starter the entire left side of the line could struggle as O-line play is not a simple sum-of-the-parts function.

The bottom line is that this move makes the Jets weaker in the near-term, but gives the team flexibility to improve the team for the long-term. Given that the Jets are unlikely to be an elite team as long as C. Pennington is at QB this approach may be wise.

Pre-Season Game #2 against the Minnesota Vikings

Pre-Season Game #2 against the Minnesota Vikings

· C. Pennington looked terrible! He threw 2 terrible interceptions that were both returned for TDs. On the 1^st he was pressured up the middle and threw a floater off his back foot – the safety had plenty of time to jump the route. On the 2^nd ???

· WR L. Coles was injured, but returned to the game – he was noticeably limping after the injury

· The run defense again looked bad as the Vikings pounded the ball up the middle for a TD – the rookie A. Peterson ran 5 times for 57 yards. CHECK the Video – Déjà vu anyone?

· The Minnesota Vikings intercepted 2 C. Pennington passes for TDs – both plays were horrendous throws by C. Pennington.

· There are disturbing patterns emerging – the defense can’t stop the run and the QB can’t throw the fucking ball!

· WR Justin McCareins made a nice catch and run for a TD – K. Clemens threw the out route pass and McCareins did the rest! That was a surprise – McCareins is not known as a yards after the catch WR.

Rumor - Jets interested in RB C. Dillon

Rumor - Jets interested in RB C. Dillon
If Dillon is healthy this is a no-brainer. The injury to starting RB T. Jones is very tough to predict.
If true, the rumored interest in Dillon is an indicator of concern about the nature of the injury. The team might be concerned about the risk of intermittent flares that will reduce performance level and possibly result in missed games.
The Jets are wise to be shopping for insurance. L. Washington will break down if forced to be the every down, 20+ carries per game back. C. Dillon may be getting old, but he may have another year left in the tank as a stop-gap RB behind T. Jones. The only other option to acquire a talent superior to Dillon is likely via a trade (Does anyone want LB J. Vilma?).